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Social Media Seminar: Using Twitter to Predict the UK 2015 Elections

15 Jun 2015

On 8 July 2015 (12-2pm)

In recent years a new approach to election forecasting has emerged that relies on social media and particularly Twitter data to predict election outcomes. While some studies have shown that this method has a surprising degree of accuracy, there has been criticism over the lack of consistency and clarity in the methods used, along with inevitable problems of population bias.

On 8 July 2015 an exciting line up of speakers will present their research on using Twitter Data to predict the outcome of the recent election.


  • Professor Rachel Gibson (The University of Manchester)
  • Dr Pete Burnap (University of Cardiff)
  • Rosalynd Southern (The University of Manchester)
  • Dr Luke Sloan (University of Cardiff)
  • Dr Matthew Williams (Cardiff School of Social Sciences)

In this research, a ‘baseline’ model was set out for using Twitter as an election forecasting tool that was then applied to the UK 2015 General Election. The paper builds on existing literature by extending the use of Twitter as a forecasting tool to the UK context and identifying its limitations, particularly with regard to its application in a multi-party environment with geographic concentration of power for minor parties.

A draft agenda is available at:

Lunch and refreshments will be provided.


Places are limited. If you would like to attend the seminar on 8 July, please register at the website below: